February, 2003
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Dear friends and family,
For the past few months, I have intentionally been ignoring the Iraq situation in my e-mails. It is a very unpleasant reality to contemplate, especially while living so close to the pending action. Since long before we arrived last summer, this was much more a concern to Rach and me than the ongoing hostilities with Palestinians. But as with everything else during our stay in Jerusalem, we've gotten used to it and gone on with our life here. Still, after being home in LA for about 10 days (I had a wonderful trip during my semester break - very little sleep, but lots of meetings and people to see) I am much more focused on the issue than I have been here - to be honest, I think there is a society-wide denial as coping mechanism here and it is not much talked about.
As I watched the news and felt the rising tension in the States, I thought some of you might be interested in an opinion and details on mental and physical preparation from this side of the world. You may not, this whole issue has been saturated, so if you don't read on I won't be offended : )
Obviously, our personal safety is the first thing on our minds. I have to admit, it is very strange to be living in a place where I need to undergo gas mask training. Yes, several weeks ago our school gave us all a lesson on how to wear them. They did it with a certain lightheartedness (Rose, the woman who is in charge of student affairs, showed us a video of her 4-year old child successfully putting on a mask), but the topic is serious. It's one thing when biological and chemical weapons are theoretical, on the news, somewhere else. It is very different to be living in a place that a bunch of crazies would like to wipe off the map. In the same way, we have become familiar with bomb shelters and other emergency procedures. I'm saying this, by the way, not to scare anyone, but to let you know that even though I don't expect any problems here (I'll explain that next) we are taking all the right precautions - just like we have been doing all year long. It just takes on a new urgency when the whole world is expecting the "Mother of all Battles" part 2.
The only thing I know for sure is that there is no way to know for sure what someone like Saddam will do. Or, for that matter, what the rest of the terrorist nutcases in this region will do when war comes. But we reassure ourselves with several assumptions:
1. We are told, by those with at least some access to Israeli intelligence, that Iraq has never been able to re-build its military after the last war. Some estimates say they have as few as 12 available rocket launching stations, which may or may not have received appropriate maintenance over the years.
2. Even if they have launching capability, there are no launch pads in Western Iraq, where they would need them in order to fire on Israel. They were destroyed years ago and not rebuilt.
3. The United States has very publicly said that they are committed to keeping Iraqi forces out of Western Iraq, and some sources even say that Americans have been on the ground there for several weeks to make sure nothing can happen there. They know that an Israeli response to Iraqi aggression would be bad for their world-wide PR effort. (A respnonse, by the way, would certainly happen this time - unlike the last war when Bush senior froze the Israelis out of intelligence they would have needed in order to send their planes to Iraq without having them shot at by Allied forces. This Bush has been more open with the Israelis, and Sharon has been very clear that he will not sit on his hands if Iraq attacks us.)
4. Even if somehow Iraq were to get a rocket off, both Israel and the US have set up anti-missile defenses. They had combined maneuvers recently, and claimed a fairly high success rate in knocking rockets out of the air.
5. Even if a rocket were to make it through those defenses, based on previous experience with Iraqi technology, there is little confidence in their accuracy. 12 years ago, around 30 scuds made it to Israel, and none hit much besides dirt.
6. Even if they are able to target well, the chances that they will be firing at Jerusalem are about nil. I realize that doesn't help for people in Tel Aviv or Haifa, but it does make us feel more secure here. Whatever else we know about Saddam, he is certainly concerned with his place in the Islamic pantheon. Everyone assumes that there is no way he would risk sending a rocket in the general direction of the Dome of the Rock or the Arab/Muslim population of Jerusalem.
7. If the world turned upside down and Saddam actually sent a missile at Jerusalem, that's where the rest of our preparations come in. As our security expert explained today: for all our other problems, Israel is very good at coping with military crises. The Home Command is mobilized and prepared, and will help deal with any situation that arises.
I know, I know, that is a crazy list to have to think about, to write, to read. But it is also a very present reality of our life in Israel. Believe it or not, even taking all that into account, we feel very safe and secure here. In some ways, we are more concerned about the U.S. and the orange alert. Something about it seems more ominous - we pray constantly that nobody here or there will be hurt.
However, it does look like some people are going to be hurt - mostly within the borders of Iraq, whether it be Iraqis or our soldiers. I have been watching with great interest, and not a little bit of incredulity, as the world debates the whole issue of whether there should be a war or not. I am disturbed by much of what I see, and I find myself on a different side of this issue than many people I talk with and other leaders in the Jewish community.
It is easy to say that war is a bad thing - obviously, our world will be a better place when people learn that killing and violence in any form is a bad thing. So many terrible scenes play out over an over in our world, it would be easy to wonder whether we live up to the term 'humanity' at all. We strive for peace, hope for peace, pray for peace, work for peace.
However, I also do not believe that war is the worst thing. There are cases when war is necessary, or better than the alternative. I am not necessarily claiming that this is one of those situations, and I find myself vacillating regularly on the issue of Iraq. I believe most of the U.S. case against Iraq, and Saddam has a long history of terrible acts - from gassing his own citizens to invading a neighboring country. And I regularly thank the Israeli military for bombing his nuclear reactor in 1981 - an act that brought world outrage but much relief later. My point is that I fear those who, like France, make the argument that war must be avoided at ALL costs. All costs can be an awfully high price to pay, and I would hope that the last century would have taught us all about that.
War and peace - big issues that have the whole world riveted right now. And, truth be told, some of the issues that have kept us busy since the dawn of civilization. However, there are other things to contemplate, too. I was in California less than 2 weeks ago when we got the news about Columbia. After my flashback to 1986, I was stuck in front of the tv for most of the day, shocked and sad and trying to absorb what had happened. I mourn the loss of 7 explorers, and I particularly feel the loss of Ilan Ramon. Israel had been enthralled with the story of the first Israeli going into space ... I don't think there is anything that better demonstrates the spirit of hope and progress and curiosity which pervades a place like Israel - no less than it does a place like the United States. I believe these are the ideals that have always moved us forward -- through fire, agriculture, industry, technology. These are the things that make us most human, our ultimate desire -- more than for power or money. For understanding. To stare into the existential void and try to understand what it all means. The Shuttle is our most tangible representation of that spirit and I, for one, hope they figure out what went wrong and send another one up soon. It would be tragic if this setback caused us to shrink from our nature.
I hope you are well wherever you are, and I hope to hear from you soon.
Mark
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